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LET me kick off with a prediction: Johnathan Thurston will throw at least five dummies against the Tigers this week.
Not exactly a bold prediction, I know. Thurston has been throwing dummies for 12 years in the NRL.
INGLIS WARY OF BENNETT MIND GAMES
The Tigers coaching staff, computer analysts and players will know JT's dummies are coming but I'm also prepared to predict the Tigers will fall hook, line and sinker for at least one of them.
Predicting something and stopping it are two very different things.
Wayne Bennett's attack on the Rabbitohs' predictability could have been his way of deflecting. Pic: Mark Evans Source: News Corp Australia
That's why Wayne Bennett's comments after South Sydney had put 50 points on his Knights that the Rabbitohs were "predictable" were so interesting.
Before Rabbitohs fans start jumping up and down, I'm sure Wayne meant no disrespect. The master of manipulating the media was just directing attention away from the Knights' performance by questioning Souths' game plan.
The real question about Sunday's bloodbath in Cairns should have been if the Rabbitohs were "predictable" and the Knights knew what was coming, why couldn't they stop it?
Like any Bennett-coached team, the Knights kept trying but they had no answers against a side that was missing Sam Burgess, Ben Te'o and John Sutton.
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There's nothing wrong with predictability in football, anyway. The real challenge is recognising predictability and dealing with it.
In the nine years I played at the Broncos, we were as predictable as the sun rising in the east.
It was no-passing in the first 20 minutes and a simple four-up-for-a-kick plan to lay the groundwork.
Shane Webcke would take a hit-up, followed by Petero Civoniceva, then Brad Thorn, then me or one of the wingers, Wendell Sailor or Lote Tuqiri. If Kevvy Walters did call for the ball, he'd pass it to Steve Renouf.
No one, least of all rival coaches, needed a computer to predict what we were going to do. And, you know what, they couldn't stop us.
The Rabbitohs put a big score on the Knights. Pic: Brendan Radke. Source: News Corp Australia
With all the technology available to them now, NRL coaches can analyse an opposing team's game plan and style to the nth degree. Even the most successful coach of the modern era, Craig Bellamy, has a formula he sticks to but that hasn't made Storm easy to stop.
The Roosters won the premiership last year with a predictable game plan of big men through the middle of the ruck, then a wide-running backrower and get the ball in the halves' hands late in the set.
One of the reasons every team still in contention for the premiership will be looking over their shoulder at the Warriors is that the Warriors have become more predictable — or at least less unpredictable.
Under new coach Andrew McFadden, the Warriors have learned that it's all very well to be flamboyant and exuberant but nitty-gritty is as important as razzle-dazzle.
Watch the Warriors now and you almost see a Craig Bellamy blueprint. They haven't just taken a page out of Storm's game plan, they've taken everything from foreword to index.
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The two 50-point scores in round 21 might have sounded some alarm bells for fans but I'm predicting more half-centuries in the final five rounds as teams that are jostling for finals spots chase for-and-against points while the bottom sides simply put the cue in the rack.
I've never seen a competition in which the for-and-against differential is as important as it is in the NRL this year.
Differentials won't just decide the make-up of the top eight, they'll decide the all-important finals order.
On Monday night, Melbourne had the Tigers beaten with a couple of minutes left but Storm still opted for a penalty goal shot in an attempt to boost their for-and-against just a little. Ben Roberts missed the sitter but the final 22-point margin still allowed Storm to skip past the Bulldogs into fifth spot on the ladder.
The Warriors ran riot against the Raiders on Sunday. Source: News Corp Australia
Melbourne finishes with a run of Knights, Sharks, Panthers, Roosters and Broncos and it's not beyond them to win all five so their differential might be insurance rather than necessity but I predict they'll be chasing points hard against the Knights and Sharks.
Of the 12 teams still in with a mathematical chance of making the eight, the Eels (-76) have by far the worst differential but they do have the Raiders (twice) and Knights on their menu in the final five rounds. And they do have Jarryd Hayne.
And if you thought the battle for points was confined to the finals hopefuls, you should have seen Paul Gallen punching the air every time the Warriors scored against the Raiders or the Rabbitohs put points on the Knights in Cairns.
He might be out injured but the Sharks skipper is passionate about avoiding the 2014 wooden spoon. Cronulla is in last spot on 14 points with the Raiders but have a -186 differential compared to Canberra's -169 with the Knights (-134) on 16 points and facing a tough finishing run of Storm, Warriors, Broncos, Eels and Dragons.
It's quite feasible they'll lose the lot, so they'll be hoping the Raiders and Sharks keep losing, too. The only problem is Round 24 when the Sharks will host the Raiders and one of them will get two points.
That will be a battle to rival anything happening at the opposite end of the ladder.
At least, that's my bold prediction.
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